CommSec report again wrongly marks down Queensland

The latest CommSec State of the States report shows a higher ranking for Queensland than the previous report but the survey’s methodology continues to underestimate the state economy’s current and forecast strength and growth, says Treasurer Curtis Pitt. 

The CommSec report assesses the current performance of states and territories on a range of indicators against their average performance over the past decade. 

“This means that while Queensland a range of other analysis forecast nation-leading growth for our state, CommSec continues to mark us down by comparing our current performance with the highs of the resources boom,” Mr Pitt said. 

“CommSec does not use any original data, it just takes information from the ABS or other sources and reshapes it to rank states and territories against their decade averages. 

“As an example, in a past report CommSec claimed South Australia lead the rankings for population growth at 1.3 per cent. But because that was above SA’s decade average of 0.8 per cent, CommSec placed SA ahead of Queensland which at the time was recording population growth of 2.2 per cent. 

“In addition, economic growth is just one of eight indicators CommSec uses to calculate its rankings, while economic growth is usually the benchmark against which all states and territories are judged. 

“Independent analysts Deloitte Access Economics in its latest Business Outlook report forecast Queensland to have the nation’s strongest economic growth in 2017-18 at 3.1 per cent.

“That the same as DAE’s forecast for Victoria and ahead of assessments for NSW (2.9 per cent) and ahead of Australia as a whole (2.7 per cent).”

“Queensland Treasury forecasts for our state are for growth of 2¾ per cent in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, and 3 per cent in 2018-19.

“That’s despite Tropical Cyclone Debbie shaving three-quarters of a percentage point off previous forecast for both years.

“These simple facts of a strong and growing economy outpacing others are simply not reflected in the CommSec report.

“Queensland Treasury advises that the limitations of the CommSec methodology mean the rankings in the State of the States report do not accurately compare current performance, and should not be used as a guide to the relative performances of the states and territories,” Mr Pitt said.

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