Full picture of Queensland economy shows strong performance and growth

Treasurer Curtis Pitt says a range of recent reports and hard data show the Queensland economy has returned from the depths of the LNP’s mismanagement and is poised for continued strong growth.

 Mr Pitt said the methodology behind the 'league table' rankings in today's (Monday, 24 October) CommSec report did not give an accurate picture of current performance and future prospects.

"The relevant comparison is how the Palaszczuk Government’s economic plan has lifted Queensland’s performance from the depths it reached under Tim Nicholls as Treasurer in Campbell Newman’s government,” he said.

 “Unemployment is down, jobs are up, and confidence and nation-leading growth have returned under our economic plan.

“The CommSec report again marks down Queensland’s performance because its methodology does not give a full picture of what is happening right now, and does not reflect our current and forecast growth.

“CommSec itself has acknowledged that its report looks backwards not forwards. It has also acknowledged its report excludes our trade performance which I have said on a number of occasions has been fuelling a large part of our current economic growth.

“That’s why the government’s economic plan has focused heavily on boosting our domestic economy which has now turned around as shown by recent State Final Demand figures.”

Mr Pitt said the CommSec report’s methodology looked at the average performance of states and territories over the past decade to assess how each was performing now compared with “normal”.

“The trouble is that Queensland more than most other states has benefited from a once-in-a-generation mining boom in the past decade, but in anyone’s language a boom is not ‘normal’,” he said.

 Mr Pitt said he had raised his concerns directly with CommSec which had stated in reply:

• “It should be noted the [CommSec] report is a measure of past performance.”
•  “[The CommSec report] assesses latest economic variables rather than presenting a view on the future.”
•  CommSec also conceded it did not include import/export data in its assessments.

Mr Pitt said a range of reports and indicators showed Queensland’s economy was performing and growing strongly:

• All state and territory budget papers forecast nation-leading growth for Queensland in 2015-16 and 2016-17. 
• The latest Deloitte Access Economics for the September quarter said Queensland was likely to be “top of the pops” for growth in 2016-17 with forecast growth of 3.7 per cent for 2016-17 and 3.9 per cent for 2017-18, and should record the strongest economic growth in the nation from 2016-17 through to 2025-26. 
• The DAE assessment was broadly in line with other private forecasts and those of Queensland Treasury. 
• State Final Demand – a key measure of the state’s domestic economy -- rose 0.3 per cent in trend terms in the June quarter 2016 and 0.2 per cent in the March quarter -- the first positive results since the December 2013 quarter under Tim Nicholls as Treasurer. Unlike GSP, State Final Demand does not include trade performance.
• Queensland exports rose by $1.1 billion to $47.6 billion in 2015-16 compared with a drop of $11.3 billion in the national figure to $243.3 billion. The rise was due largely to higher rural exports, including a 53 per cent rise in crop exports to reach $1.6 billion in 2015-16. LNG continued to contribute to export growth. Its export figures were in a confidential ABS category that rose 56 per cent or $4.1 billion in the year. 
• ABS employment figures showed the state’s trend jobless rate fell to 6.1 per cent in September after Tim Nicholls inherited a rate of 5.5 per cent, promised to target 4 per cent, took it a high of 6.7 per cent, and left behind unemployment of 6.6 per cent. 
• S&P Global affirmed the state’s AA+ rating, citing the “..very strong economy, strong financial management and budgetary performance, and low contingent liabilities..” and after assessing the government’s Debt Action Plan. It noted Labor’s two Budgets delivered surpluses by controlling spending in the face of revenue write-downs. 
• Ratings agency Moody’s had also affirmed its AA credit rating but kept the state on the negative outlook flagged in 2012 after the destructive first State Budget delivered by Tim Nicholls. 
• National Australia Bank business surveys consistently showed Queensland leading or equal-first for business confidence. 
• The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index showed rising consumer confidence. 

“In addition to all the hard data, I found a very positive outlook on Queensland’s economy at last week’s meeting of global investors organised by the Queensland Treasury Corporation and the Commonwealth Bank in Port Douglas,” Mr Pitt said.

 “Our economic plan together with a favourable exchange rate, growing confidence, a resurgent tourism sector and our strong economic growth all mean international investors are looking directly at Queensland right now.

“I also recently helped launch the Brisbane branch of the world’s biggest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China that said its decision to join three other Chinese banks with a branch in our state was based on its ‘growing confidence in the state of Queensland’.

 “All of this paints a very different picture to the one put forward by the CommSec report,” Mr Pitt said.

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